Wisconsin Election Day Report

Date postedNovember 6, 2024
Legislative,

This information is provided courtesy of Forbes McIntosh at Government Policy Solutions, Madison 

Wisconsin 2024 General Election Summary

The results are still coming in on Wisconsin’s November 2024 General Election, but most races have been called. The Federal elections yielded Donald Trump winning Wisconsin with 49.7% of the vote, a 31,319-vote margin over Kamala Harris out of 3.3 million votes cast. While U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin has declared victory over Eric Hovde receiving 49.4% of the vote, the narrow, 27,107-vote margin has most major media outlets listing it as too close to call.

Wisconsin 8 Congressional District Races: One New Face & Seven Incumbents Maintain

Party affiliation in the eight Wisconsin Congressional districts has not changed. The seven incumbents won re-election and as expected the open 8th District remained Republican with Trump-endorsed Tony Wied (R-DePere) receiving 57.3% of the vote. U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) won what was considered nationally as a top competitive \ vulnerable Congressional race, receiving 51.4%, a margin of 11,140 votes.

 State Legislature: As Expected, Party Margins Narrow with New Maps

Earlier this year, the Republican-controlled State Legislature passed and Governor Tony Evers (D) signed into law 2023 Act 94, which established new State Assembly and State Senate district maps. 

At the time, the adoption of the Governor’s map was an effort to fend off even more liberal-leaning maps from the Wisconsin Supreme Court.  The new district maps were expected to narrow Republican and Democratic majority \ minority margins in both houses, and after the 2024 General Election yesterday, it had its intended effect. The State Senate in the 2023-2024 legislative session had a supermajority of 22 Republican and 11 Democrat members (33 total), and the State Assembly had 64 Republican and 35 Democrat members. The election yesterday resulted with the Senate Republican majority decreasing by three, possibly four seats, and the Assembly Republican majority has decreased by 10, possibly 11 seats (possible recounts in some races).

Wisconsin State Senate: GOP Majority Decreases, But Dems See Path to Majority in 2026

Party control of Wisconsin’s State Senate was never expected to change this year as only half the districts (even numbered) were up in 2024. Further, only four of the 16 Senate districts up this year were truly considered competitive. However, with the new maps in place this election cycle, Democrats yesterday have picked up three and possibly all four - which includes the defeat of two Republican incumbents. In two of the races, Senate Districts 8 and 18, margins are too close to officially call, but it looks good for Democrats. Regardless, Democrats now see a possible path to the majority in 2026, as they would only need in 2026 to defeat two of the three incumbent Republicans now located in Democrat-leaning Senate districts, due to the new maps.

 Wisconsin State Assembly: GOP Majority Decreases, But GOP Still has Healthy Majority

Assembly Democrats said they had a path to the majority in 2024 with the adoption of the new election maps. Before the November General Election, Assembly Republicans were close to a 2/3 supermajority with 64 seats, compared to the 35 held by Democrats (99 total). The new maps reset the expected margins to 46 Republican and 44 Democrat-leaning districts - creating nine highly competitive districts. About 12 Assembly districts in total were considered competitive. Democrats to obtain a majority had to maintain their vulnerable districts and flip six of the nine highly competitive seats. The results of the General Election yesterday have yielded the Assembly Republicans a 54-45 majority, assuming three races where Republican candidates are leading in vote tallies, but are still too close to call.

What’s Next?

Election races that are too close to call a clear winner at the moment could result in a recount. A recount will not change the Republican majority control of both houses of the State Legislature. Republican and Democrat caucuses in each house will now convene to elect their leadership, which may lead to some further changes.

Referendum

In addition to the federal and state races, Wisconsin voters were asked a referendum question on voting eligibility. The question asked about changing the state constitution to say that "only" U.S. citizens can vote in Wisconsin's elections. That referendum passed 70 percent to 29 percent.

More results

Click here to read the results by race in Wisconsin.

Click here to see a Wisconsin State Assembly analysis.

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